Election Day minus 2 - Orange Crush, Irony and Hope

Day 36: NDP opposition or NDP minority? The pundits have stopped "pundit-ing," they don't even want to hazard a guess, that's how unexpected the polls are for this election so far.

Today the largest Canadian daily newspaper The Red Star has come out in favour of the NDP Socialists, The Star is finally showing its true colours. Many years ago I cancelled my subscription to The Star as a way of showing my displeasure with their editorial bias back then. I invite my GTA readers to do the same, think of it as another opportunity to vote.

The irony in this election popularity contest is that the negative advertising seems to be working. The Conservatives have been targeting Michael Ignatieff since before the election. Saying things like "he is just visiting" from Harvard, and that he was parachuted in to save the Liberals, stuff like that. Ignatieff himself comes across as an aloof academic, not really your 'everyman.' but of course people don't like Stephen Harper either. The Liberals and NDP paint Harper as a 'micro-manager' with a 'hidden agenda.' So in an election campaign that is really devoid of issues as this one is, it's a popularity contest. Ironically Jack Layton is perceived as the 'everyman,' the guy who goes to the bar to watch a hockey game, the guy you want to share a beer with. Of course nothing is further from the truth, he is a career politician from a political family, and he has a chance to bring to fruition 50 years of building the base of a socialist Canada, the orange crush.

There is a silver lining in all of this, a hope. It seems like months ago, but at the start of this election campaign, the general consensus was that it was going to be a repeat of the last election. Well, oops on that, so much for consensus opinion. The pundits did not count on just how irrational the voting public is. Who would have thought that voters chose just on the basis of superficialities? But it seems to be happening, look what happened during the Obama/McCain election of 2008.

There is a lesson here for us. We just need a charismatic leader, that will forcefully spew some acceptable promises, with no intention of keeping them. It might work, telling people the truth sure doesn't work. The biggest reason for hope is that the electorate is fickle, so the unexpected is always a possibility, the pendulum swings both ways.

In my own little one-man campaign, I'm making 'appearances' at various local shopping malls and the liquor store distributing pamphlets that most people accept. I have had a couple of interesting encounters, one today was almost exciting. A woman took my flyer, looked at it, then asked if I was the guy on The Edge interview the other day? "That was me," I said, she shook my hand and said: "you got one." What are the odds?  

Election Day minus 4 and 3 - Time for NOTA

Day 34 & 35: The cartoon says it all. It was published in the local Markham Economist & Sun on April 28th. While I keep ranting that there is no real choice between the parties, the polls don't agree. Apparently many Canadians believe (are under the illusion that) that they have a choice. Instead of the statist Conservatives or Liberals they are clambering for the even more statist New Democratic Party (NDP). Some choice!

Of course the NDP has nudged the rudder that steers this country for decades now, why not make it official and give them the helm and the captaincy? The good ship Canada will survive, but the pain that will result may also last for decades, and we may be cured of this disease that is socialism, or not. I shake my head when I hear explanations for rising health costs, education costs, any cost that government has accepted as its responsibility. All these problems can be "fixed" by creating yet more government  programs, more government spending etc. etc. ad nauseum.

Today I had the opportunity to speak to students at a local secondary school near my home, as part of an all-candidates debate in the waning days of this campaign. I think I made an impact, I felt I was on "home-turf" speaking to students - Grade 12's, 11's and 10's. A few spoke to me later, commenting on how they had never heard of Libertarians before, found some of my ideas interesting and worthy of examining, and of course that was the whole point.   So chalk one up for me, a small (no pun) voice in a very big country. Will it make a difference? Who knows, but we will find out soon. I mentioned to the group that I will be back for the October Provincial election, so I planted a seed, and our message then will be very similar to our message now. Maybe, some day, we could be more than "none of the above."

VOTE 2011: YouTube of Introductory remarks

I've mentioned my participation at the public forum held at OISE University of Toronto on April 23, 2011, in a previous post. The good people who organized this gathering have posted the introductory remarks of each of the participating parties onto YouTube, so thanks to Support Local Scene's Channel.

Here is what I had to say:

Election Day minus 5 - Are the Liberals Toast?

Day 33 - Just to follow-up on my comments yesterday, Jack Layton's NDP may become the official opposition in Canada on May 2. As I suggested yesterday the NDP has been adjusting the orbit of the Canadian welfare state for so long, they might as well run the show.
It may be too early to write the obit for the Liberal Party, but I'm not the first. I was at a (Libertarian) party caucus meeting almost two weeks ago when I heard our keynote speaker (Gerry Nicholls), predict the end of the Liberals this election or the next. This was well before all the NDP media hype of the last few days, so I just tucked that idea away. But it could be happening now!
A column in my morning paper is suggesting the same thing. So whats going on?
Well, I think it just confirms the idea that Canadian voters fail to see differences among the major parties. Over the years, Liberals and Conservatives have stolen platform ideas from the NDP and the Greens - the Liberals in particular. So, if one needs a microscope to see differences between the Liberals and NDP, and the NDP leader is "likeable," while the Liberal leader is not, then it makes sense for voters to choose the NDP. The Liberal reason for being fades.
Its too bad really, like many other libertarians, I would consider myself liberal, in the classical sense. Libertarians value individual freedom of choice, with regard to their body, and individual freedom of action with regard to the state. The power of the state needs to be limited in such a way that it does not interfere with regard to economic and social interactions. While the liberal idea still exists in Canada, the Liberal Party may disappear. The country may be polarizing between statists who claim to be fiscally responsible but social conservative, and statists who prefer to grow the nanny state, yet happen to be socially liberal. Some choice! Wait until people realize that Layton wants a "cap-and-trade" system.
The poll picture below shows the virtual tie between the Liberals and NDP. This may split the vote so much, that the Conservatives win a majority with even less of the popular vote of than in the last election.

Meanwhile in my own "campaign" such as it is, I'll be out at public places handing out flyers, and at home trying to complete government income taxes :-( too. Which one should I give priority too?

     

Election Day minus 7 and 6 - Momentum

Lenin and Layton

Day 31 and 32 - Poor Bob Rae, he picked the wrong partner. Those who live in Ontario remember Rae when he was the first and only NDP Premier in this province. He actually tried to control government spending by instituting "Rae-Days" or furlough days for government workers like teachers (me). I happen to know the very same type of thing is happening in California now - furlough days for teachers, and in other States and Federally. Most Canadians probably don't know this, why should they, they don't even know what's happening in their own country.

So, why am I picking on Bob Rae? It seems that the NDP (socialists who prefer orange to red) are big news in the waning days of this election. Maybe Canadians are acknowledging that we indeed have a fairly socialist big government that keeps growing despite the so-called Conservative Prime Minister Harper. The truth is Harper's minority government has made so many concessions to the NDP, we may as well have the NDP governing us. Bob Rae switched from Leader of the Provincial NDP, to leader-in-waiting of the Federal Liberals, and the Liberals seem to be fading fast in the polls - bad move for Bob.

Jack Layton, up there in the picture does bear some resemblance to Lenin in more ways than one. People say Layton is a nice guy (Lenin I hear was not), they would love to have him over for a beer - Layton not Lenin. I'm sure he is a nice guy, and while that might qualify him for a friendly beer, it doesn't mean you want him doing anything else. But who knows, a Layton government may actually be better than a Conservative one. Layton is anti-war, like Libertarians, so if his government brought our troops home, that would be a savings of lives and money. Several NDP provincial governments have actually been known to cut spending and act fiscally responsible when in power, Layton might do the same. I don't thing the corporations will like him though, but with six days to go Jack has momentum. The graph shows NDP poll results in orange and more can be found here.

  

Canada’s dirty little secret

Among the lies that are bandied about by Canada's politicians (not including me) during an election, is the one about Canada's fiscal restraint, and how we have our house in order compared to our American neighbours for example.
In the midst of this election campaign most of the "news" has focused on polls, parties, leaders and their whereabouts, with very little on issues that will affect everyone in the not-to-distant-future. An article in the National Post by Diane Francis highlights one of those issues. Her column Canada's Case of 'Dutch Disease' illustrates that the economy is not as rosy as the politicians paint it. Ms. Francis claims that much of Canada's current prosperity is due to the commodity boom fuelled by China's growth. If China were to stumble, look out.
I've written before on why I think China's growth is an illusion based their government's desire to export cheap stuff to the rest of the world, keeping their employment high, even at a loss, which they can absorb for the time being. At some point even they will not be able to continue, that could be months or years from now, its impossible to know. But when, China does stumble Ms. Francis says Canada gets badly hurt.
Her column comes after a report issued by a Montreal independent investment consulting firm MacroResearchBoard (MRB). Ms. Francis criticizes the report because "it ignores, as do politicians, Canada’s dirty little secret, which is that federal public debt to GDP may be the lowest in the developed world, but when provincial debts are included, the ratio is nearly as serious as America’s in relationship to GDP. To separate them is misleading because provincial debts are guaranteed by Ottawa. And a year from now, Ontario and Quebec alone will owe more than Ottawa, or half a trillion dollars." Ms. Francis goes on to say: "In fact, Eastern Canada’s economies resemble Michigan’s, Detroit’s or Spain’s, but are hidden by the boom in the West, led by Alberta.
But once commodity prices head downward, China slows or both, it will have a huge impact on Canada. This is the report’s important takeaway."
Ontario's debt is approaching $240 billion, Quebec's debt is approaching $236 billion, and the Federal government's debt is approaching $570 billion (April 25th, 2011). So the question is, how long before a problem occurs? Maybe when interest rates rise, do you think they ever will? This video won't make you feel any better either:

Election Day minus 8 - Into the heart of darkness

Day 30: Yesterday I spent much of the day at OISE part of the University in downtown Toronto. It was like a home coming for me, I had attended classes there about 40 years ago when I was a student getting my teacher's accreditation. Sadly, it hasn't changed much. 

I don't want to sound self-serving but I was at public forum of the Small Parties, like us. Well, not really like us, all that we have in common is we are just minor parties in the May 2nd election.

Many of the party reps present thought that the media ignore us in favour of the mainstream parties. Of course that's bunk. In the marketplace of political parties, the minor fringe parties are given short shrift for many reasons. Some of these parties are just plain single issue parties like The Marijuana Party, Animal Alliance Environment Voters Party, and the First Peoples National Party. Of course I would consider the Green Party a single issue party, and they should have been at this conference, because like us they have no representation in Parliament. They were invited, but chose to ignore it. 

No, the reason that we are ignored by media is that we are ignored by voters - we really don't have much to offer to the vast majority of voters who are too busy to select good political representation. The Greens of course emerged as a larger party to save the world from the scourge of human environmental recklessness, you know global warming and the like. But the writing is on the wall for them, they don't yet believe it, but they are yesterday's leftovers, maybe they will join the minor party group next election.

Other parties present were the Canadian Action Party, Christian Heritage Party, Communist Party, Marxist-Leninist Party, Pirate Party and the Rhinoceros Party. All but the Pirates and Rhinos (see picture of two members above) are state-loving power parties. The Pirates are interesting, not sure why they aren't libertarians but hey, I like the name. The Rhinos are funny, full stop.

One party I thought was interesting enough to sort of join is the Online Party. Like all the others they are interested in issues, but they aren't pushing anything, they are just polling apparently, and offering a place for issues to be discussed, very refreshing.

For me the whole thing was possibly a waste of time though, unless there is some real press attention (none that I have seen yet) from it that discusses issues, not just the fact we were a motley crew.

Each of the party reps and their helpers I'm certain, were dedicated to their cause and passionate about getting their particular message out. I respect that, and those that I met, and spoke to, seemed like good people, people I would like as neighbours (maybe not the Rhinos ;-) ). I knew that going into the University campus, a socialist hothouse, was not going to be fun for me, and it wasn't fun. Central Toronto itself tends to vote for left leaning parties and people. So going down there was like banging my head on a wall, it felt better when I left. Would I do it again? Not unless there was more to gain than I did this time. This was a mix of Stranger in a Strange Land and Heart of Darkness.

Election Day minus 9: Time to bunt

Day 29 - Baseball is the perfect game for summer, slow, gentle, and cerebral. That's right cerebral, it is a mind game, a game of strategy and probability. Team managers like to play the percentages. What are the odds of such-and-such happening in a particular situation? A good manager will try to choose particular tactics that have worked in the past in a certain situation, only because there is a likelihood they may work again. So there is a constant collection of data in the form of statistics that team managers can refer to, and the best managers have this data in their heads.

Today I had an opportunity to be at a local event, an all-candidates meeting in my voting district. I was asked by our party V.P. of Political Action to sacrifice my own attempt to gather votes for my campaign in favour of the party, the team. This is a common practice in baseball, if there are runners on base with the chance to score, subsequent batters may be asked to "sacrifice" themselves for the team, depending on the situation. How? Well,  a batter could hit the ball really hard into the air - creating a fly ball, but deep enough into the outfield so that a runner could advance after the ball is caught. Or a batter could be asked to bunt along the first base line. This forces the opposite team to throw to first, and get that bunter while whomever is on base advances. It's a sacrifice too, for the team.

Now lets be clear, my sacrifice today is not going to ruin my chance at being elected, far from it, but it does not look good in my community. For the sake of representing the party I appeared at a staged media event of minor - "fringe" parties from across the country that was held in the heart of Toronto.

I just got back from that, and I'm beat. The socialists of central Toronto have beaten me, air-heads that they are. I'll say more later.

Earth Day 2011

Even in the heat of an election campaign, when I don't have time to, well, time to do all sorts of things, I can't resist taking a swipe at the Eco-nuts, especially when I'm given ammunition. Such ammunition came from the good people at ReasonTV.
Now you may have noticed the awful silence amongst the media regarding Earth Day (April 22, 2011), I certainly have, here in the Great White (still thawing) North. I have not been cajoled today to turn off my lights, avoid driving, flush the toilet only when necessary (ugh!), use less toilet paper, pick up street garbage, have a candle-light dinner, buy local produce (good luck in Canada in April), compost my left-overs or any of those thing. What a relief! Its been quiet, I guess the eco-crisis has subsided, because there are no frantic pleas from the green mob.
Any way I have things to do, so here is ammunition for the rest of the year to ponder the next time an enviro-nut admonishes you for being alive.

Election Day minus 11 and 10 - State Holiday Today, or else!

Libertarian says: party is socially

 liberal, fiscally conservative.

Day 27 and 28: Is Canada, particularly Ontario, Christian country? You would think it was today, Good Friday. Drive around my town and almost everything is closed. Yet I have been listening to the local all-news radio station and they report two and three hour wait times at the Canadian - US Border, for entry into the United States where it is business as usual. Those Yankees even have Good Friday/Easter Sales, and with the Loony worth about $1.05 for each US Greenback, well, that is irresistible for many not so religious Canucks. You would think in a free country people are grown-up enough to choose whether they want to work or pray or shop. Not here, it is an Ontario law and I have commented on it before. Just think of all the business being lost to our American neighbours as we are encouraged to stay home and hunt Easter eggs.

In another area, many Canadians are finding it much more difficult to cross that once very porous US-Canadian border. The legislative over-reaction to the  9/11 hysteria has created new ways for our governments to observe our movements, as you may want to read in this article.

Today is also Earth Day, did you know? I totally forgot, and the media did not remind me as it has dutifully done for the previous 20 years. I guess things have improved, or more likely people don't really care. Every day should be a day we respect property and how people use it. The destruction of the environment, I believe is largely due to poor laws for the protection of people's property. Canada is a perfect example, our Charter of Rights contains no provision for property rights and this phrase from the Libertarian platform sums up our policy: 

We maintain that no one has the right to violate the property rights of others by pollution. We believe that the laws of nuisance and negligence should be modified to cover damages done by air, water, and noise pollution.
We support the development of an objective system of law defining individual property rights to air and water. We believe that ambiguities regarding these rights (e.g., the concept of "public property") are a primary cause of our deteriorating environment.

In my own little election campaign, my wife helped me post all of my remaining large signs (30) throughout town, and repair many that have suffered wind damage. I have more large signs posted than either the New Democrat or the Green candidate. In fact the Green candidate isn't so green. His signs are plastic bags (non-recyclable) stretched over metal holders, and they are all lawn signs which contravenes the local Town by-law about size and sign type. Talk is cheap in the world of politics.

The two pictures above are from the local newspaper, and the reporter was reasonably accurate in reporting what I had said to her. I doubt that this will cause a stampede of voters in my direction, but who knows, I may attract the odd thinking individual.